SMM Metals Reports

TD Securities Lifts Gold, Palladium Price Forecasts, Cuts Silver

(Kitco News) - TD Securities increased its 2014 gold and palladium price forecasts, while cutting their outlooks for silver and platinum.
The Canadian bank increased its third quarter estimate for gold by $35 an ounce to $1,295 and its fourth quarter estimate by $15 to $1,265. They lifted their annual 2014 average price by $13 to $1,285. For palladium, TDS boosted its third quarter estimate by $50 to $875, and the fourth quarter estimate by $25, also to $875. They lifted their annual 2014 average price by $19 to $827.
“While our fundamental view has not changed, the fourth quarter 2014 gold level was upgraded slightly to reflect recent positive price action caused by Middle East and Russia tensions and choppy U.S. economic data,” the bank said.

Volatility to Grow in Base Metal Market

SHANGHAI, Sept. 1 (SMM) – Base metals prices are expected to be more volatile this week, responding to increasing risks and a series of releases of economic indicators. 
Analysis of Major Macro-economic news in China, US and Europe 
The PBOC dropped agricultural lending rates for rural financial institutions Aug. 28 to incentivize an increase in lending from these institutions at a rate as much as one percentage point lower. The PBOC previously provided RMB 1 trillion in three-year pledged supplementary lending (PSL) for the China Development Bank. This will reduce financing costs for SMEs to boost economic activity. Possibilities exist that interest rates may come down for more financial institutions in the near future. 
US and Europe 
Chairwoman Janet Yellen indicated at the annual confab of central banks in Jackson Hole Aug. 21-23 that the Fed will draw QE3 to a close this October and may raise interest rates thereafter, should the job market continue to improve. ECB President Draghi, in contrast, advanced the stimulus from June to boost demand within the Eurozone and promised a prolonged period of extremely accommodative monetary policy in the ECB’s ongoing effort to reignite spending. Minutes from the Bank of England’s August meeting indicate that the bank is likely to raise interest rates 25 basis points soon. The ECB’s move towards additional quantitative easing is due to renewed stagnation in Eurozone economies since June compounded by an extremely low rate of inflation. The recoveries in the US and UK economies now appear more sturdy. China is anticipating a renewed, large inflow of capital in Q3 due to geopolitical crises in Europe and the Middle East and as monetary easing in Europe cuts capital costs there. 

Specs cut bullish bets in gold, silver; raise copper longs-CFTC

Fri, 29 Aug 19:59:00 GMT
(Adds graphic link, details from CFTC report in paragraphs 2-7)
Aug 29 (Reuters) - Hedge funds and money managers decreased their bullish futures and option bets in gold for a second consecutive week as a record rally in U.S. equities sapped demand for the safe-haven metal, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.
The group, also known as Managed Money, cut silver bullish bets but raised net long position in copperin the week to Aug. 26, the period covered by the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report.
Interactive graphic:
Economic optimism reflected by a string of positive U.S. economic indicators lifted the S&P 500 <.SPX> to a record high of 2,005 on Tuesday, decreasing demand for safe-haven metals such as gold and silver.
Speculators decreased their net long position in gold by 24,180 contracts, or 20 percent, to 92,734 lots, the CFTC data showed.
The group lowered net long positions in silver by 2,805 lots to 13,718 contracts, extending its decline to a sixth straight week.
Speculators, however, raised 8,754 bullish bets in copper to boost the market's net longs to 17,411 lots, snapping a five-week decline.
In addition, the group decreased bets on platinum <0#3CFTC076651> by 5,097 contracts to a net long of 27,793, but added to palladium longs <0#3CFTC075651> by 1,389, bringing the total to 23,226.
(Reporting by Frank Tang; Editing by Diane Craft and Lisa Shumaker)

Mongolia Becomes 3rd Largest Supplier of China Copper Conc. Imports

SHANGHAI, Aug. 28 (SMM) – Mongolia exported 108,200 tonnes of copper concentrate during July, up 124.17% year-on-year, Ulaan Baatar Post reported Aug. 27. 
Such exports, accounting for 12% of China’s total imports, helped Mongolia become the third largest supplier of China’s ore imports in July, the newspaper cited China Customs data as saying.   
During the first seven months of 2014, outbound shipments of copper concentrate to China from Mongolia registered a 56.5% year-on-year growth to total 461,360 tonnes, ranking 5 among all suppliers, it added. 
In addition, Mongolia also exported 13,900 tonnes of zinc concentrate during Jan.-Jul. period.  

Aluminum Prices Surge on Smelter Closure and Other Good News

SHANGHAI, Aug. 27 (SMM) – A series of positive news cheered the aluminum market. The October-delivery aluminum in SHFE market hit a high of 14,520 yuan per tonne on Wednesday, closing the day at 14,460 yuan per tonne.
Alcoa’s latest closure of one costly smelter in Italy further buoyed up market sentiment following Rio Tinto’s record-high premiums for Oct.-Dec. aluminum shipments to Japanese buyers and a tax hike on bauxite in India.   
“The closure of Italian smelter by Alcoa will drive up both LME and SHFE aluminum prices as this will fuel market speculation over supply”, said one analyst from Shanghai Dalu Futures in an SMM interview.   
In south and east China’s spot markets, suppliers were eager to sell goods at highs, but higher prices turned buyers away on Wednesday, Shanghai Metals Market learned.
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